empty
13.03.2025 04:12 AM
EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 13: Bad Canada and Good Trump

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a relatively calm trading session throughout Wednesday; however, there is uncertainty regarding when the next collapse of the dollar might occur. Over the past week and a half, one thing has become clear: any new announcement of tariffs against any country in the world causes the dollar to plummet rapidly. There seems to be a sense of poetic justice in this. The market, much like the rest of the world, is clearly demonstrating to Trump how it feels about his political style.

It's not just the declining dollar; under Trump's administration, the U.S. stock market has been slipping, the cryptocurrency market is in decline, and American products, notably Tesla cars, are facing worldwide boycotts. It's important to mention that Tesla belongs to Trump's close ally, Elon Musk. Therefore, its stock is falling not only due to anti-American sentiment but also as a direct result of a rejection of Trump's policies, which Musk vocally supports.

Thus far, after two months of Trump's presidency, it is challenging to identify any positive developments. To clarify, we are not political analysts or strategists, nor are we fortune tellers. We do not possess insight into Trump's long-term goals. Perhaps in two years, it will become apparent that he has been making the right decisions and that the U.S. economy will flourish even more than before. However, at this moment, things appear absurd—not just to us, but to the entire world.

Just this Tuesday, Trump announced additional tariffs on Canada as part of his "tariffs for everyone" campaign. This decision, however, was not entirely without justification. The U.S. president was notably displeased that the province of Ontario raised electricity prices for the U.S. by 25%. In Trump's view, this was completely unjustified, prompting him to impose a further 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, bringing the total tariffs to 50%. He also declared a state of emergency in the region that relies on Canadian electricity. Furthermore, Trump warned of impending tariffs on Canadian automobiles, which he claimed would "destroy Canada's auto industry," as well as on Canadian lumber. The president believes that America is subsidizing Canada to the tune of $200 billion per year, and he insists that this situation cannot persist. According to Trump, the only way to prevent conflicts and disagreements is for Canada to simply become the 51st state of the United States.

As they say, the show goes on. The dollar continues to decline, and the market is largely ignoring macroeconomic and fundamental factors, which have become entirely uninteresting. Technical factors are also being overlooked. The U.S. currency keeps dropping almost daily, and when it isn't declining, the market remains stagnant, awaiting more news from Donald Trump. This is how 2025 has begun.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days, as of March 13, is 86 pips and is considered "moderate." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0823 and 1.0995 on Thursday. The long-term regression channel has turned upward, but the global downtrend remains intact, as seen on higher time frames. The CCI indicator dipped into oversold territory again, signaling another wave of upward correction, which now barely looks like a correction at all...

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.0864

S2 – 1.0742

S3 – 1.0620

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.0986

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has exited the sideways channel and continues its rapid ascent. For months, we have been stating that we expect only a decline in the euro in the medium term, and that outlook has not changed. The dollar still has no fundamental reason for a sustained medium-term decline—except for Donald Trump. Short positions remain far more attractive, with targets at 1.0315 and 1.0254, though at this point, it is challenging to predict when this relentless growth will end. If you trade based purely on technical analysis, long positions can be considered as long as the price remains above the moving average, with targets at 1.0986 and 1.0995.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen continues to be on the defensive against the U.S. dollar, as global risk sentiment improves following new stimulus measures announced by China over the weekend. This

Irina Yanina 11:35 2025-03-17 UTC+2

USD/CAD: The Pair Starts the New Week with Caution

The USD/CAD pair begins the new week with caution, fluctuating within a narrow range above 1.4350 and remaining above the 50-day SMA. However, fundamental factors suggest potential downside risks. Positive

Irina Yanina 11:05 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Are stock investors poised to buy shares during nosedive?

Anything can happen sooner or later. The S&P 500 entered correction territory in just 16 trading sessions. In the previous 24 instances where stocks dropped 10% from recent record highs

Marek Petkovich 09:32 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Markets Will Remain in a Depressed State for Some Time (we expect a renewed decline in #Bitcoin and #Litecoin)

Global financial markets continue to be heavily influenced by the policies of the U.S. president, who is disrupting the established economic and geopolitical framework that existed before him. Naturally, this

Pati Gani 09:15 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Dollar Sells Off, Recession Threat Grows, S&P 500 Index Risks a Major Collapse

The dollar sell-off continues without signs of slowing down. According to the CFTC report, the net long position on the USD decreased by another $4.6 billion over the week, reaching

Kuvat Raharjo 08:52 2025-03-17 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 17: The Market Has Fallen Asleep. Nobody Cares About the Economy

The GBP/USD currency pair completely stagnated on Friday. The chart below clearly shows that there was significant volatility during the first three days of the week before last when

Paolo Greco 04:05 2025-03-17 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 17: No Hint of Correction

The EUR/USD currency pair did not continue its sluggish downward movement from Wednesday and Thursday on Friday. As a result, we will have to wait once again for a correction

Paolo Greco 04:05 2025-03-17 UTC+2

US Dollar: Weekly Preview

America will once again be a major focus in the news. Surprisingly, it won't primarily be due to economic updates or the Federal Reserve meeting, but rather news surrounding Donald

Chin Zhao 23:05 2025-03-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD Weekly Preview: All Eyes on the Fed

After experiencing a significant surge of 500 pips, the EUR/USD pair has settled into a period of stagnation, awaiting further news. The Federal Reserve may either alleviate or heighten concerns

Irina Manzenko 23:05 2025-03-16 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on March 17? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Monday, with the only notable report being on retail sales in the US. It's important to note that the market has shown

Paolo Greco 22:27 2025-03-16 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.