Forex Analysis & Reviews: 14.02.2023 - Oil: U.S. puts reserves into...

14.02.2023 11:56 AM

Oil: U.S. puts reserves into action

Russia announces a 5% cut in production, the U.S. responds by saying it is ready to resume oil sales from the strategic reserve, and OPEC reassures investors by saying that the market is stable and there are no grounds for an emergency meeting of the cartel. The actions of major participants show different goals. If some of them have a need for foreign currency proceeds to finance military expenditures, others are thinking about the sustainability of the commodity market.

5% of Russia's oil production is about 500,000 bpd. A very decent figure that can worsen the Brent rally, which is happening now. Another thing is that such a decision by Moscow may be a forced measure. It redirects its oil flows from the West to the East, and recently more and more cracks have appeared in this process. In particular, for seven days to February 10, the total oil supply from the Russian Federation decreased by 16%, or by 562,000 bpd.

Dynamics of offshore oil supplies from Russia

However, the U.S., unlike the EU, did not stress that the sanctions are working. Washington decided to resume sales of oil from the strategic reserves, which reached 180 million barrels in 2022. This time 26 million barrels are at stake. The figure may not seem that big, but the effect of surprise is important. Many traders thought that reserves would remain at 371 million barrels by the end of 2023. In fact, they will shrink to 345 million. We are talking about the lowest level since 1983.

If we add to this the forecast of the U.S. Energy Information Administration that shale oil production will reach a record 9.36 million bpd this year, it becomes clear that there will be no problem with supply. On paper, this should clip the wings of Brent buyers.

Dynamics of U.S. strategic reserves

In reality, the market is more concerned about the growth of demand for oil than temporary supply difficulties. In particular, the fall in the number of deaths from COVID-19 in China increases optimism about the rapid recovery of Asia's largest economy. The increase in the European Commission's forecasts for the Eurozone GDP for 2023 to 0.9% instead of the previous 0.3% suggests that there will be no recession. And hopes for a slowdown in the U.S. inflation fuel risk appetite. If this happens, the Fed will not need to raise the federal funds rate too high and will provide the U.S. economy with a soft landing.

Thus, the assurances of the UAE, an OPEC member, that the market situation is stable despite Russia's production cuts are true.

Technically, after partial profit taking on long positions on Brent, formed due to the three-touch reversal pattern, at the level of $86.3 per barrel, a pullback followed. Currently, the bulls are trying to get back into the game and storm the $86.4 fair value resistance. If they succeed, the probability of implementing the target of $89 per barrel will increase. We will have the opportunity to increase the longs.

你今天已经点赞上这篇文章了

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

If you have any content questions, please contact editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025

该作者的更多文章

电子邮件订阅

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

选择时间框架

分钟

小时

天

周

开始交易

通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。

下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。

推荐文章

四月在歐洲天然氣未來中扮演關鍵角色

WTI – 西德克薩斯中級原油。價格缺乏增長的支持

歐元/美元。分析與預測

美國股市遇到困境

EUR/USD。你好，四月：歐元區通脹報告、ISM指數及非農就業報告

GBP/USD 匯率概述 – 3月31日：非農就業數據、特朗普和失業率或將為美元帶來新問題

EUR/USD 貨幣對概述 – 3月31日：美元迎來新一週的考驗

3月31日需要注意什麼？新手必讀的重要事件分析

AUD/USD：分析與預測

EUR/USD。分析與預測

Top analytics