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12.12.2024 05:17 AM
2024年12月12日 歐元/美元匯率預測

週三,歐元進一步小幅下跌,接近1.0461–1.0598區間的下限。每日時間框架上的Marlin振盪指標已經達到中性零線,這表示歐元已準備好迎接歐洲央行會議的結果。

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市場已經充分預期今日降息0.25%的可能性,而Christine Lagarde可能不會宣布任何具有突破性的消息。即便是聯準會也預期在十二月調降利率0.25%,並在一月暫停(不降息的概率為75.4%)。考慮到地區間的經濟平衡,整體市場情緒偏向美元。地緣政治因素也支持美元的走強。

從技術層面分析,若歐洲央行的決策引發價格跌破1.0461的支撐位,則可能進一步測試1.0350的支撐位,其次目標位在1.0250。

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在4小時圖上,價格穩定在均衡線和MACD指標線下方,而Marlin振盪指標仍在看空區域發展。根據這兩個時間框架,目前的趨勢仍然是向下的。要扭轉這一趨勢,需要發生一個不尋常的事件。

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024
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