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07.03.2023 01:49 PM
US premarket on March 7, 2023
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US stock index futures advanced slightly after many traders took profits yesterday in the afternoon amid concerns about today's statements by Jerome Powell. US Treasury bond yields are below the key level of 4%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, while NASDAQ futures added about 0.3%. Meanwhile in Europe, the Stoxx 600 also had a slight increase after an unexpected rise in German manufacturing output bolstered confidence in the eurozone's economic resilience.

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According to the report, demand in Germany rose by 1% compared to the previous month, above the 0.7% decline economists had predicted. This increase was driven by an increase in demand for capital goods, particularly aircraft and aerospace construction.

Many traders are now taking a wait-and-see attitude after being repeatedly frustrated this year by betting on peak inflation, the cooling US economy and a policy reversal by the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 has already gained 2% this month, offsetting some of its February losses. However, investors don't want to take any more chances until they receive clearer information from the Federal Reserve about how interest rates might rise and whether the world's biggest economy can avoid a recession.

Today's remarks are unlikely to spark a major equity sell-off, but will push markets into a sideways trend until new labor market, inflation, retail sales and real estate data for February is released.

As noted above, today the Fed chairman will have an opportunity to explain how much further policy tightening is needed to fight high inflation. Jerome Powell believes that continued hikes are necessary to reach that goal. He will appear before Congress twice this week.

The next key event is Friday's monthly employment report, which may clarify whether the labor market is starting to cool off, or whether it has shrugged off the rate hikes to nearly 5.0%. The unexpectedly strong job growth data for January resulted in investors revising their expectations of further Fed policy tightening even higher. Markets are now pricing in a peak US interest rate of around 5.4%.

The yield on 10 year US Treasury bonds remains around 3.92%, dropping below the level of 4% which it hit last week. However, investors note the attractiveness of this yield level for buyers. In Europe, bonds also went up, while yields declined. A published European Central Bank survey showed a decline in inflation expectations to 2.5% over the next three years.

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On the technical side, demand for risky assets persists. The S&P 500 index can increase only if the bulls manage to push the index above $4,064, opening the way to $4,091. Another key goal for bulls is holding on to $4,116, which will stop the bear market. Only after that, the index could steadily surge upwards to $4,150. If the index slides down amid Jerome Powell's remarks in the US Senate and low demand, bulls will have to keep the index above $4,038. Otherwise, it would quickly drop to $4,010, opening the way towards $3,980.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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