Analisis Forex & Kajian: 06.02.2023 - The dollar held firm after...

06.02.2023 11:56 PM

The dollar held firm after good U.S. jobs data, the lira hit a record low

The dollar held firm against the euro on Monday as traders believe the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to raise the rate to combat inflation. This came after the release of encouraging U.S. jobs data that showed the labor market remains strong. Meanwhile, the lira hit a record low due to a combination of factors, including the earthquake in Turkey and Syria and a strong U.S. dollar.

The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and expressed confidence in its efforts to fight inflation. However, strong U.S. nonfarm payrolls data and a rebound in services in January led investors to price in a more dovish path going forward. The Fed is expected to reach 5.05% in June. This sent the dollar to a three-week high against a basket of currencies, rising to 103.25 on Monday.

Despite the positive outlook for the U.S. economy, there are concerns that the Fed may be raising interest rates longer than expected. "The worry of course is that the much better than expected data is bad news if the Fed sees this as bolstering its case of two more hikes and keeping rates elevated for longer," said Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at National Australia Bank.

The dollar was also boosted by escalating tensions between the U.S. and China after a U.S. military fighter jet shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon off the coast of South Carolina on Saturday.

Meanwhile, the euro fell to a nearly three-week low of $1.0769 after the European Central Bank raised its rate on Thursday. Austrian Central Bank Governor Robert Holzmann warned that the risk that the ECB won't raise interest rates high enough is still higher than the risk that it will raise them too much, as inflation in the eurozone remains too high.

In other currency news, the yen weakened after it was reported that Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya was being sounded out to be the next governor. The report was later denied by the Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary. The yen fell 0.5% against the dollar to a three-week low of 132.60.

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Alexander Elesin,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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