empty
03.03.2025 02:40 PM
Oil: key drivers and market outlook for this week

This image is no longer relevant

In the coming days, volatility in the oil and gas markets may increase significantly, especially in light of expected economic data and potential statements from key policymakers. The focus should now be on support and resistance levels as the market is at a critical decision point.

Brent crude oil futures continue to consolidate within a tight range of $72–73.75 per barrel. Support at $70-70.7 remains key, preventing further declines, while the descending resistance level limits price action from the top. In these conditions, traders must navigate through a mix of conflicting factors.

This image is no longer relevant

A break below $70 could intensify bearish sentiment and lead to a test of $68 and lower. On the upside, the next target is $75, which would open the way to $78.

Fundamental drivers: positive factors and risks

Assessing the geopolitical situation remains a complex task. The likelihood of a ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict appears to be delayed based on recent signals. This is a positive factor for the oil market, as continued tensions support a risk premium in prices.

Encouraging news has come from Asia: China's manufacturing PMI for February came in well above expectations. This reinforces hopes for stable demand from the world's largest energy importer.

However, the global economic outlook remains threatened by the possible resumption of trade wars initiated by Donald Trump. Such a scenario could slow global GDP growth, putting pressure on oil demand.

Sanctions against Iran and Russia have not yet had a significant impact on supply volumes to Asia. However, potential increases in restrictions on either country's shadow fleet could intensify competition for available vessels, which could impact supply logistics.

Gas: growth in question

Natural gas futures are in a bull market, but the current move is accompanied by a correction, the depth of which is difficult to gauge. Key levels:

  • Resistance: $3.887 – the zone of the descending trendline
  • Support: $3.567 – a potential level where demand could pick up

A break above the resistance level could resume the bullish trend, while a drop below the support level would open the path to $3.45 and lower.

This week's top events

  • March 4: US oil inventories data from API.
  • March 5: EIA statistics, the start of China's National People's Congress.
  • March 7: US labor market data, a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and Baker Hughes rig count.
Natalya Andreeva,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Euro Looks for a Basis for Another Upward Surge

Business activity indices in the eurozone are declining amid heightened uncertainty. The composite index in April fell from 50.9 to 50.1, nearing contraction territory. At the same time, Germany's

Kuvat Raharjo 00:54 2025-04-29 UTC+2

Bitcoin Can't Lose

There's never a dull moment with Bitcoin. Sometimes it behaves like a risky asset, sometimes like a safe haven. At the beginning of April, the cryptocurrency was jokingly referred

Marek Petkovich 19:03 2025-04-28 UTC+2

The Market Has Outplayed the Professionals

"Follow the smart money" — this classic principle of technical analysis suggests it's safer to side with professionals rather than the crowd. However, in 2025, such an approach would have

Marek Petkovich 19:00 2025-04-28 UTC+2

USD fails to be resilient

Is the US dollar overvalued? Bank of America thinks so. The bank points out that in previous cycles, when the USD Index peaked in the mid-1980s and early 2000s

Marek Petkovich 16:23 2025-04-28 UTC+2

ECB Ready to Cut Rates Further

Officials at the European Central Bank are preparing for further interest rate cuts, anticipating that U.S. tariff policies will inflict serious and prolonged damage on the economy, even

Jakub Novak 09:24 2025-04-28 UTC+2

The Upcoming Week May Be Positive for Markets but Negative for the Dollar and Gold (we expect further growth in CFD contracts for S&P 500 futures and Bitcoin)

The upcoming week will be rich in important economic data releases, which could have a noticeable impact on market dynamics — but will they be able to? Amid the geopolitical

Pati Gani 09:12 2025-04-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. Eurozone Inflation, U.S. GDP, ISM Manufacturing Index, April Nonfarm Payrolls

The upcoming week's economic calendar is packed with important releases. As usual, the beginning of a new month brings significant macroeconomic reports from the U.S. and the Eurozone, typically triggering

Irina Manzenko 06:49 2025-04-28 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 28? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday. If the market barely reacted to macroeconomic data last week, there is nothing to expect on Monday. Of course, Donald Trump could make

Paolo Greco 05:51 2025-04-28 UTC+2

The U.S. Dollar. Weekly Preview

The United States is facing an important week, but it is unlikely to be important for the U.S. dollar. Significant reports on the labor market, job openings, unemployment

Chin Zhao 01:05 2025-04-28 UTC+2

British Pound. Weekly Preview

The British pound is doing even better than the euro. The market keeps finding additional reasons to increase demand for the pound, even when the euro remains stagnant. Therefore, even

Chin Zhao 01:05 2025-04-28 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.