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26.03.2025 07:03 AM
What to Pay Attention to on March 26? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday, and only one important report is expected. The UK will release what may seem like a significant inflation report. Inflation remains a key factor for the Bank of England when determining the parameters of its monetary policy. However, only the second estimate for February will be published today, and the second estimates rarely differ from the first. As Andrew Bailey noted last week, inflation in the UK continues to rise and may increase even further. Therefore, regardless of the actual CPI figure, there is little reason to expect a sharp drop in the pound based on this report. In the U.S., a report on durable goods orders will be released today. Since this category of goods is relatively expensive, it offers insight into American consumers' willingness to make high-cost purchases.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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Among Tuesday's fundamental events were Federal Reserve officials Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem's speeches. However, the last Fed meeting occurred just last week, and Jerome Powell clearly outlined the central bank's position for the coming months. It is unlikely that Kashkari or Musalem will add anything new. In any case, the Fed's monetary policy currently holds little weight with traders. They continue to focus solely on Trump and his trade policy.

General Conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue the downward movement that has been building over recent weeks. Both pairs have settled below their ascending channels, and the Fed's stance allows the dollar to reclaim some of its unjustly lost ground. Of course, no one knows when Trump will announce new trade tariffs or what they will look like, but even this factor cannot endlessly provoke a decline in the dollar. At present, the British pound is more inclined toward flat trading than toward a downward correction.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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