Forex Analysis & Reviews: 18.03.2025 - USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips...

18.03.2025 09:00 AM

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 18. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 148.64 came when the MACD indicator started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 40 pips but could not reach the target level of 149.18 on the first attempt.

Today, data on Japan's services sector activity index was released. The figures did not support the yen, which continued the upward correction of the USD/JPY pair. The result was slightly better than the preliminary estimates but still indicated a slowdown in growth. Analysts attribute this to ongoing uncertainty in the global economy and cautious consumer sentiment in the domestic market. Despite this, the Japanese economy shows signs of resilience, supported by the export sector and government investments in infrastructure. The Bank of Japan continues to pursue a restrictive monetary policy, planning to raise interest rates further if necessary.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 149.76 (green line) with a target growth of 150.52 (thicker green line on the chart). At 150.52, I plan to exit the buy position and immediately sell in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pip move back down from that level. It's best to enter buy positions during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of 149.41 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 149.76 and 150.52.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 149.41 level is broken (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 148.75, where I plan to exit the sell position and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip move back up from that level. Pressure on the pair could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.76 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. We can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 149.41 and 148.75.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

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*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.