Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 142.11 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming it as a suitable entry point into the market. As a result, the pair moved up by more than 70 points, just slightly missing the target level of 142.89, where I intended to sell on the rebound. In the second half of the day, all attention will be focused on the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who may signal a continuation of a dovish approach to future interest rates—especially after Friday's report on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Let me remind you that the data indicated a slowdown in inflation growth, which could be a plausible reason to continue lowering rates. This could be problematic for the dollar and increase pressure on USD/JPY. Regarding my intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 142.83 (green line on the chart) with a target of 143.49 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 143.49, I will exit my buys and open sales in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from this level). You can expect the pair to rise today only if strong US data is released. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its upward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 142.49 level, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect growth to the target levels of 142.83 and 143.49.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaching the 142.42 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 141.79 level, where I will exit my sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return in the case of weak US statistics. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 142.83 level, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. You can expect a decline to the target levels of 142.42 and 141.79.

Details on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line – The estimated price where you can set Take Profit or lock in profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line – The estimated price where you can set Take Profit or lock in profits manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Pay attention to overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important

Beginner forex traders should make entry decisions with extreme caution. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it's necessary to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.